The new submarines are part of a larger effort to modernize the entire US nuclear arsenal to ensure it can protect the United States and its allies for decades to come, a multi-billion-if not -trillion-dollar investment.Ĭlimate change stands to challenge these modernized systems and their deterrence mission. These submarines will replace the current Ohio-class fleet starting in the 2030s and are expected to be in service until the 2070-80s. The Navy stares down this new reality as it prepares to deploy the modernized Columbia-class submarine to Kings Bay. These climate effects therefore may not only disrupt base operations and submarine servicing-as did Idalia-but they could also potentially delay the transport and maintenance of the submarines’ nuclear missiles, with serious implications for the readiness of the SSBN fleet. Over the next few decades, various climate change scenarios project that rising waters will inundate not just waterfront facilities, but also a key road connecting the on-base nuclear missile facility to the waterfront (see Figure 1). And these climate change effects alone could significantly affect Kings Bay’s capacity to service and maintain the nuclear submarines based there. Sea level rise and annual flooding, on the other hand, can be reasonably projected into the future. Although climate science can tell us that warming will make hurricanes more severe, it is exceedingly difficult to project whether these extreme weather events will be more frequent. Add in storm surge-which, paired with sea level rise, is going to expose more of the base to deeper flooding as the century progresses-and it’s not difficult to envision that the collective impacts of a hurricane could severely undermine the base’s capacity to function-and deliver its nuclear mission.
The direct impacts of, say, Category 4 hurricane winds of up to 156 miles (251 kilometers) per hour would be devastating enough for Kings Bay. Idalia’s rapid intensification amid unseasonably warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf suggest this phenomenon may well already be underway. A warmer ocean and atmosphere fuel the evaporation-condensation cycle that powers hurricanes, causing more rain, stronger winds, and so, more powerful storms. Hurricanes are only expected to get worse as global temperatures rise. Reports indicate the installation experienced minimal damage and resumed normal operations the morning after the storm passed.īut the base may not be so lucky next time. Kings Bay seems to have dodged the worst. Homes and business were destroyed, hundreds of thousands were affected by power outages, schools closed, the list goes on. While Idalia’s eventual downgrade from a Category 4 hurricane to a tropical storm meant the worst devastation was avoided, the storm-and flooding and storm surge left in its wake-still wreaked havoc. And civilian employees and dependents were ordered to evacuate according to local authorities’ guidance. On-base facilities, including the nursery, health clinic, and commissary, were closed. Four nuclear submarines undergoing maintenance had to be tightly tethered with heavy weather moorings.
In anticipation of Idalia, Kings Bay operations and personnel were seriously curtailed. At a cost of $5 billion, the base is still rebuilding, making significant efforts to ensure it’s resilient to the most powerful storms. Take Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, where a Category 5 hurricane caused catastrophic damage in 2018. This isn’t the first time the military has dealt with powerful storms and their devastating aftermath. Military bases along the southeastern coastline battened down the hatches, preparing their facilities, systems, and personnel for the worst. As the storm barreled near, state and local authorities did their best to prepare, declaring states of emergency and issuing evacuation orders.
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